Impulsivity, expectancies, and evaluations of expected outcomes as predictors of alcohol use and related problems.

BACKGROUND While the association between outcome expectancies and drinking is well documented, few studies have examined whether evaluations of expected outcomes (outcome evaluations) moderate that association. OBJECTIVES The present study tested the hypotheses that outcome evaluations moderate the outcome expectancy-drinking association and that outcome expectancies mediate the association between impulsive personality and drinking. METHODS College students (N = 201; 55.5% female) enrolled in a mid-sized metropolitan university completed measures assessing outcome expectancies and evaluations, alcohol consumption, and drinking-related problems. RESULTS Consistent with study hypotheses, expectation of negative outcomes predicted lower levels of drinking, but only when these outcomes were evaluated as highly aversive. However, impulsivity was found to be a far stronger predictor of both drinking and related problems than were outcome expectancies or evaluations. CONCLUSION The association between negative expectancy and drinking was moderated by negative evaluation, such that individuals who both expected that negative outcomes were likely to occur and who judged such outcomes as highly undesirable consumed significantly fewer drinks per week. Impulsivity was found to be a strong predictor of both alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems.